Some time ago a news item caught my attention. It said “CIA Predicts India to be No. 2 Economic Power by 2025″. It made interesting reading. It made sense for CIA to study and analyse future world scenarios and prepare assessments for its top brass, but I wondered why should the Agency let the world know about it. Surely, there must be some well thought strategy behind this.
I did not get time to ponder over any ’strategy’ and, meanwhile, I happened to be in India days after the Mumbai killings (which had taken place on Nov 26). I had a first hand opportunity of witnessing how Indian govt was carrying out its diplomatic activities and how the whole incident was being covered in the Indian media. I don’t know why but the whole handling of this ghastly incident by the Indians suddenly brought back recollection of the aforementioned CIA’s assessment.
The coverage in the media and the ‘activities’ at the governmental level impelled me to cogitate over whether India and the Indians had the necessary societal, political, racial, temperamental, intellectual adequacy to be bequeathed a no. 2 position at some point in time. It is well known that a challenging situation like that of Mumbai killings tests a nation, and a qualitative evaluation of India as a nation on road to superpowerdom started taking place in my mind.
First, I was appalled at the sloppy way of handling the terrorists. Forget about the lack of preparedness to tackle such a situation, the inability of the authorities of the financial capitalof India to deal with the situation in a prompt, cohesive and systematic manner was pathetic to the say the least. The ineptitude and casualness of the State Chief Minister was disgusting (he was later booted out by the Congress party supremo).
Next, the Indian TV coverage on the day of the terrorist attacks, and post-26/11 coverage indicated how immature and idiotic the people who run this medium are. It did not occur to the simpletons overseeing the TV operations that there should not be any ‘live’ updates on how the security forces were confronting the terrorists. Nor did the senior-most Administrative and Police officials of the State have some grey matter in their heads to realise that they had necessary authority to stop the nonsensical ‘live’ coverage if they wanted to.
The ’live’ coverage provided by the Indian channels (and foreign channels borrowing footage from them) were making it easier for the people remotely guiding the terrorists (allegedly from Paksitan) and making the task of the security forces difficult. Much after the security forces had started their operations against the terrorists, the channels started to broadcast their footage with a time delay of few hours.
If a nation is wishing to achieve a no. 2 position, that nation had better started pulling up its socks to move to that spot. This would include, among other things, being prepared on various fronts. Remember, you are in 21st century in which the rapid technological changes are completely transforming the way things happen. Information is multiplying at an incredible rate, therefore, older work processes are getting overhauled at a frenetic pace.
In such a scenario a country such as India, if it has to really reach no. 2 spot in the world, has to be able to anticipate and respond to Mumbai-like situations in a proper manner, not in the stupid and haphazard manner the Maharashtra State folks handled it. Even the kids watching American channels know that there is something like SWAT teams in major cities of America (and in Canada too). The SWAT teams deal with the terrorist attacks Mumbai witnessed rather than the commandos from Armed forces.
Terrorist attack is but one unexpected scenario that one needs to be prepared for. There can be unexpected situations on other fronts too – on economic, military, medical, social fronts et al. And, if you are not ready for the various unexpected situations you will be caught napping and suffer setbacks. Mind you, some setbacks can be serious enough to set the country back by a few years.
A classic example of that is Japan. It was predicted, incidentally by CIA only, that Japan will be world’s no. 2 power in the 90’s (albeit based on economic power). But what happened in reality? Japan went in to a decade long stagnation and recession-like situation in the 90’s, and could not come even close to becoming world’s no. 2 power. It did climb to no. 2 spot in the GDP rankings though but this achievement did not translate in making Japan a world superpower. On the contrary, in the new millennium China not only became an economic power in its own right, it became a major international player.
Why did Japan stumble? It faltered because it was not prepared to be exalted to that pedestal – to be a world no. 2 power. Strong GDP numbers, or massive international trade surpluses were not enough; it required a vibrant domestic economy, a steady upward economic growth of the society as a whole to enable Japan to be a force to reckoned with. Instead, Japan was left to grapple with its economic woes, and slowly got relegated to back benches of international power equation.
So, if it can happen to Japan - a nation of fiercely nationalistic people, very hard working populace, and a highly disciplined society- then things are going to be hundred times more difficult for India which is notorious for being disorderly, corrupt, socially and politically fragmented, confused, low on national pride, and sense of purpose. The post-26/11 Indian scene did not throw up many encouraging signs that India was on its way to be a real no. 2 international power – a superpower.
In India, things seem to happen in fits and starts whatever be the realm, ad-hocism reigns supreme. At any given time one can see nothing but crises management going on, fire fighting taking place at various fronts. There is hardly any coordination amongst the key stakeholders. On top of that there is no dearth of people who are willing to do things contrary to national interests if they are paid a suitable price.
In fact some don’t even need any price – they are so madly sold on alien ideologies and/or to their alien masters that they will do anything to make the alien/master’s ideology successful, never mind that that might mean screwing up country’s interests. It is said that some Indians in key policy making positions, who have worked for well known international bodies, are more wont to further the objectives of their former international masters rather than India.
From now to 2025 it is another 15+ years to go. By 2020’s will India be able to get over its disorderliness, corruption at highest levels, societal/political fragmentation, all-pervasive confusion, lack of national pride, cohesiveness and sense of purpose? Will it really be possible for India to achieve this, given so much of illiteracy, poverty, casteism, provincialism (and other ‘isms’), insularity, lack of proper leadership, moral degradation/erosion etc prevailing in the country?
On top of this all, there will be inimical forces that will try to create umpteen hurdles on India’s road to becoming a superpower. What else are the intelligence agencies of various countries for, if not for doing all this?
Do Indians have in them to do whatever it takes to achieve that exalted position in the international polity? Well, at some point in the history India was envied for all its affluence, riches and power (agreed, that time the country’s structure may not have been same as that of today but it was not too different either). But for a country to succeed, one of key requisites is ‘proper leadership’ which India has been lacking most of the time since independence. What are odds that this key requisite be available to India from now till 2020’s?
I don’t think there are easy answers for the questions raised above. It is for the Indians to figure out the answers for themselves. How to work the way to proper answers and how best to implement them will, again, be left to India and its people to decide. History will be waiting for year 2025 to arrive, and it will at that time pronounce its judgement whether CIA’s assessment of 2008 turned out to be true.